NEW YORK - Playboy, the legendary publisher of uh, adult-themed magazines, is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday.
Now there are several easy jokes that we could make about the fact that Playboy's numbers are due out on Valentine's Day. But we're above that. Really.
After all, why go the lowbrow humor route when discussing a company that has actually been a star performer in an underperforming sector?
Playboy's stock was up 13 percent in 2005, a more than respectable performance for a media company, particularly one with strong ties to the struggling publishing business.
And several analysts think that there's more love to go around for Playboy investors.
After reporting several consecutive years of losses earlier in the decade, analysts say Playboy has bounced back lately thanks to a stronger focus on its video-on-demand television operations as well as increased revenue from licensing the brand name.
To that end, Playboy announced a video on demand agreement to have its films available through Comcast, the nation's largest cable firm, in October. And on the licensing side, the Palms Casino in Las Vegas will be opening a Playboy Club and Casino this summer.
"The turnaround is still continuing. The Comcast VOD deal and more licensing deals will drive results going forward," said Robert Routh, an analyst with Jefferies & Co.
Licensing, in particular, is expected to be a key part of the company's growth strategy, said David Bank, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets. Although licensing represents just a small portion of the company's overall revenue, less than 10 percent, the business segment is extremely profitable.
For example, Bank estimates that in its first full year of operation the Playboy casino at the Palms could bring in about $5 million in sales to Playboy and that the company should generate about $4 million in gross profit from the casino.
"This is a fantastic deal. There are virtually no operating expenses for Playboy. They are just giving out their name," said Bank, adding that if the casino at the Palms is a success, he would not be surprised to see Playboy do similar deals in London as well with casino operators in Macau and Shanghai, China.
Playboy also will benefit from having a cleaner balance sheet since it restructured a large portion of its debt last year in order to reduce the interest expense it must pay on that debt. Melissa Otto, an analyst with DE Investment Research, estimates that the company will be able to lower its interest payments by about 35 percent from 2004 levels as a result of the debt restructuring.
"This allows the company to use its cash to focus on areas where there is growth rather than utilize it for interest expense," she said. "They can invest more cash in marketing."
The debt restructuring will cause the company's fourth quarter results to be lower than a year ago, however. Analysts expect Playboy to report a fourth quarter profit of 18 cents per share and a full-year profit of three cents, down from earnings of 26 cents and 3 cents respectively for last year's fourth quarter and all of 2004.
But without the restructuring charge, Playboy should report earnings between 54 cents and 59 cents a share for all of 2005. What's more, the company has already said that it expects earnings in 2006 to be up 20 to 25 percent from last year, thanks to the strength in entertainment and licensing.
As such, analysts are forecasting earnings of 67 cents a share for 2006 and revenue of $359 million, a 6 percent increase from last year.
To be sure, Playboy, like many other publishing companies, still faces a tough market. Advertising revenue is expected to be sluggish for the company's flagship magazine this year. And publishing accounts for nearly a third of Playboy's overall sales, so weakness there is problematic.
But Dennis McAlpine, an independent media analyst, said that as long as Playboy can make sure that its magazines don't lose a lot of money then the company should be in good shape going forward since it still has a lot of opportunities to increase sales through its small, but growing, online and wireless content units.
"The objective is to see the magazine break even give or take. It really doesn't matter much anymore. The real growth is going to be on the electronic media side," he said.
Along those lines, Bank points out that Playboy quietly launched a Playboy Mobile service in December with Cingular Wireless. The content is fairly tame (mainly some PG-rated wallpaper images and ring tones) and Bank said that over the next year, he expects more wireless carriers to add the service.
But can the stock still be a buy? Bank argues that Playboy, which currently trades at about 21 times 2006 earnings estimates, is worth this price given that earnings should increase by at least 20 percent this year.
Routh agrees that the shares, despite their strong 2005, still have more room to run. He thinks a fair value for Playboy is about $16.34, nearly 20 percent higher than current levels.
So with all of that in mind, it looks like there's no need to hide this stock under your bed in a brown paper bag.
